Post-Free Agency Frenzy 3 Round NFL Mock Draft

 This off-season has been incredible, a record setting combine followed up by one of the best free agencies in recent years. The free agent moves have been so big that mock drafts are going to start looking very different. It’s funny, leading up to free agency there were some consensus picks. Now, it feels a bit more like the wild west. Things have opened up and there will be a lot more variance in mocks going forward until they settle back down. And… let’s not forget that some chips still need to fall: Lamar or DHop anyone? I have a hard time believing we get through to the draft with no Lamar news. I can’t see him just playing on the tag and everything being okay, maybe a long term deal gets done in Baltimore at the end of this but something has to happen.

Okay, preamble done, let’s get into it. This will be my second of 4 2023 mock drafts followed by a full 7 round mock 1 week before the draft and a final 1 round addendum the morning of round 1. If you haven’t checked out my post-combine mock, you can check it here: https://cardio-football.blogspot.com/2023/03/2023-post-combine-1-round-mock-draft.html . I hope you enjoy these mocks, I dedicate a lot of time toward getting as many picks right as possible. Let’s get rippin!

Round 1

1. Carolina Panthers - QB Anthony Richardson Florida:

Starting with a head turrner, but I’m calling it now: Richardson is Carolina’s guy, believe it. Carolina immediately made a move to number 1 after the combine, which signals to me that they have a guy in mind. When something like this happens, you look at the combine and reflect on who stood out the most: Anthony Richardson. Much like Travon Walker a year ago, the outstanding athletic traits are enough to get a new Head Coach’s mouthwatering. When you know you have a few years of job security to play with you go with the guy who showcases the highest upside. Again, that’s Richardson (possibly the best athlete we’ve ever seen at QB). Yes, Stroud and Young looked awesome but we already knew that. They didn’t blow the roof off like Richardson. That said, this move still makes sense if the opposite occurred and Richardson proved he’s not in the same tier. With Houston slated to take a QB at 2, moving up to guarantee one of the clear top guys (Young and Stround in this case) makes sense. I’m just not buying that that’s how Frank Reich sees it.

2. Houston Texans - QB Bryce Young Alabama:

This pick feels really close to a lock for me, they could prefer Stroud but Young makes a lot of sense for DeMeco Ryans. Ryans comes from San Fran and Young is the perfect mix of the QB traits that made the Niners so successful and what those teams had been missing that stopped them from finishing on top. He’s smart, efficient, accurate, and a winner, similar to what Jimmy G displayed over the years in SF. That said, Young has what Garoppolo lacks: The ability to adlib and make big time plays happen. I think he’s Houston’s guy, and the DeMeco Ryans era will hit the ground running.

3. Arizona Cardinals - Edge Will Anderson Alabama:

With Jalen Carter’s recent struggles, I think that Will Anderson has become the clear top defensive player in the draft. Sure, there’s better Edge athletes but Anderson is going to be a star out the gate and is a pretty solid athlete himself. Arizona badly needs help on the Edge, even if they decide to resign Marcus Golden. So, Jonathan Gannon sticks to the Philly way and goes Front 7 out the gate. The Cards will slot Anderson in out wide and let him work.

4. Indianapolis Colts - QB C.J. Stroud Ohio State:

The Colts luck out and get their guy without having to trade up. I think there will be several teams looking to leapfrog Indy and grab Stroud at 3, but The Cardinals will be unwilling to move and miss on Anderson. Stroud is a great fit for what Indy’s going to want to do under Shane Steichen and I’d be surprised if he isn’t the top QB on Indy’s board. This is a good get for The Colts and what they’re planning for the future.

5. Seattle Seahawks - CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon:

I’d expect Seattle to look for a trade back here, but I think interest in trading inside the top 10 has really died off. While there’s a few teams outside the top 10 that’ll be very interested in Will Levis, I think the feeling is that if someone inside 10 wants him, they can have him. He’s not worth the price with Hooker around as well. Seattle has built up a nice team and I believe they’ll want to stick with Geno and see what he can do with a more polished roster. Tyree Wilson could be a fit here but the Hawks are very deep at Edge. Corner is one of their biggest needs and Gonzalez has set himself apart as this drafts top D-Back. He’ll fill out this athletic back end nicely across from Tariq Woolen.

6. Detroit Lions - QB Will Levis Kentucky:

This is an interesting one, Detroit has bolstered an already strong roster with a bevy of skilled Free Agents (Especially at DB). While they’re in win now mode, GM Brad Holmes has proven that he’s not scared to shake things up with the roster to preserve their long term success. A good example of this is going with the slightly younger and more versatile David Montgomery in Free Agency despite Jamaal Williams’ huge 2022 success and footprint on the team. The Lions have few real needs after Free Agency and they can be addressed later, they do pick again at 18 after all. Holmes takes a swing at the guy with the highest upside left on the board and will grab additional starters with his next few picks.

7. Las Vegas Raiders - DL Jalen Carter Georgia:

There is every reason for Carter to drop outside of the top 10 right now, but you can’t argue with tape. Josh McDaniels comes from New England and The Patriot way has enabled them to get guys like Carter back on the right track for years. They’re not going to over think it in Vegas, DT is a big need and Carter is too glaring of a talent to pass on.

8. Atlanta Falcons - Edge Tyree Wilson Texas Tech:

I think Atlanta might be big on Bijan Robinson here, but Wilson sliding to 8 is too big of a get to pass up. Pass Rusher has been a huge need in the ATL for basically a decade and Wilson would be rivaling Will Anderson at the top of boards right now if he were healthy.

9. Chicago Bears - Edge Nolan Smith Georgia:

The Bears have successfully built up an offense, giving Justin Fields the tools to prove he can be the guy. They could look Bijan’s way here and continue that cycle, but their Defense just needs too much work. Edge is a major need in Chicago and Matt Eberflus gets a fun new pass rush toy in the combine’s biggest riser: Nolan Smith.

10. Philadelphia Eagles - HB Bijan Robinson Texas:

Philly loves to build on Defense, and there is opportunity to upgrade on that entire side of the ball. The Eagles lost many quality starters throughout free agency and that includes HB Miles Sanders. While this isn’t a textbook Eagles pick, it makes too much sense. They’re really close to getting a superbowl, they can smell it and getting Jalen Hurts the most dynamic weapon Philly has had in years may just push them to the finish line. They have the capital later to add on Defense.

11. Tennessee Titans - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State:

Tennessee did a great job patching the holes in its roster through free agency, to me there’s only two clear options left here WR or Edge. They could get by with what they have at Edge right now, but WR needs to look a lot different in 2023 for them to succeed. Smith-Njigba may just be the highest graded player on their board at this point as he’s the type of true technician Mike Vrabel’s squad covets. He’s checked all of the boxes this off-season and has made his recent injury woes a distant memory.

12. Houston Texans - Edge Myles Murphy Clemson:

Houston’s got their QB, now DeMeco Ryans can take control. Ryans is a Defensive guru and loves to build upfront, couple that with the fact that Murphy is the best player left on the board and you have a match made in heaven. He’s a textbook fit for Ryan’s brand of defense and will be a centerpiece for things to come.

13. New York Jets - DT Calijah Kancey Pitt:

Yes, The Jets. You’re insane if you think Green Bay is getting a 1st for Rodgers, they won’t, come back to me next round. I did this pick before, and it seems like it’s starting to gain a lot of popularity. The Jets have a pretty filled out roster but they could stand to improve across the DLine or in the secondary. Kancey is a great fit for Robert Saleh’s defense and will do wonders for the Jets interior pass rush. They can bring him along slowly with Solomon Thomas still in the mix, but this will fortify that DT spot next to Williams for years to come.

14. New England Patriots - CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois:

This is a tough one, WR and OT are still needs but New England’s cornerback room has been a revolving door for several seasons. Belichick loves smart DBs with great ball skills, and that’s something that The Pats D is lacking. I think he’ll fall inlove with Witherspoon’s tape and he’ll be very high on NE’s board. This gives The Pats a new INT monger for years to come.

15. Green Bay Packers - TE Dalton Kincaid Utah:

OT could be in play here but I believe they feel pretty comfortable with second year starter Zach Tom. OLine is sliding a bit in this draft but to no fault of their own, other positions are just stacked. The Packers are really lacking on quality targets for young Jordan Love and Kincaid gives him a phenomenal safety valve on day 1.

16. Washington Commanders - OT Peter Skoronski Northwestern:

Skoronski, and the OLine class, have slid in this draft due to the rising stock of other positions. He’s a fantastic talent and too good for a team like Washington to pass up on. While he may be best suited for a move inside, the main cause for his slide here, I think Skoronski would be a day one upgrade for either tackle spot in Washington. Protect Howell, and give him a real chance to be the guy.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State:

For a long time I felt that Joey Porter Jr. or Jordan Addison would be a lock here if available, but instead I have Pittsburgh going back to another classic Steeler pipeline: Ohio State. Omar Khan’s free agency was very telling, they want to breed competition at weak spots and bring in steady veterans to limit mistakes. That’s a step in the right direction, but many of us were surprised to see two interior Olineman signed and no Tackle competition. This is the only spot on the roster that’s been seemingly neglected and I think that’s by design. Tomlin is also said to be a huge fan of Johnson’s game.

18. Detroit Lions - Edge Lukas Van Ness Iowa:

Van Ness is a great fit for Detroit here, I could also see them considering some other similar players in Keion White and Adebawore. Similar to Aidan Hutchinson a year ago, Van Ness helps set Dan Campbell’s physical tone and provides the flexibility to play inside at 3-4 end in base situations while flexing outside to the edge on pass rush downs. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Broderick Jones Georgia:

D-Back needs some work as well and a flexible player like Brian Branch could be in play here. That said, LT is a glaring need. The Bucs feel like a team in limbo without Tom Brady, but building the protection up front can allow them to slow down and rebuild. This new Tackle tandem of Jones and Wirfs will be great for Tampa’s future and whatever QB is running it.

20. Seattle Seahawks - OG O’Cyrus Torrence Florida:

Seattle continues to improve upfront and let Geno work. There’s quite a few options for Pete Carroll’s squad here but he grabs the best interior OLineman in this years draft. I wouldn’t count out the addition of a WR like Addison or Johnson or even a rusher like Keion White here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers - S/NB Brian Branch Alabama:

This is a win now move for The Chargers, Branch is going to be an upgrade right away at nickel and safety beside Derwin James. He’s a hybrid Corner/Safety similar to some of the leagues top recent stars: Minkah, Mathieu, Gardner-Johnson. This style of player is all the rage today. That said, having this hybrid skillset and lack of speed to survive outside is what causes Branch to last until 21.

22. Baltimore Ravens - CB Joey Porter Jr. Penn State:

This is the biggest question in the draft right now, how is the gigantic Lamar Jackson chip going to fall. If he leaves to say, Indy or Atlanta, Baltimore will get a top 10 pick and likely spend it on someone like Richardson or Levis if available. For some reason I still have a feeling that they work it out and if that’s the case, I think they bolster Defense here. They could go with a variety of positions but Porter is too good of a talent to pass up on at 22 and Baltimore gets to give Pittsburgh a shot to the gut in the process.

23. Minnesota Vikings - WR Quentin Johnston TCU:

Receiver is really a mashup this year, I think Smith-Njigba has become the clear top guy but after that there’s 3 maybe 4 players who could go late first/early second and provide different flavors depending on what a team needs. There’s something for everybody. Johnston provides Minnesota with the size and potential physicality of an Adam Thielen but with the added bonus of field stretching speed, making him the perfect complement for Justin Jefferson. Despite the QB ties, I believe Minnesota still views themselves in win now mode and WR must be addressed.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jordan Addison USC:

The Jags could go a variety of directions here, I could specifically see them adding to the secondary or making a move to trade back. Jordan Addison somehow sticking around makes the decision easy for them: Go with the best guy on the board, it doesn’t hurt that he’ll become TLaw’s favorite target for years to come. They’ve done a great job building a viable receiving corp without investing through the draft, but some things are inevitable and this makes a lot of sense for TLaw in the long term. The receiver room is super thin anyways, the top guys have been inconsistent, and who knows how Ridley’s going to look. This makes too much sense.

25. New York Giants - CB Deonte Banks Maryland:

The Giants have quietly built a deep roster. This means that while there’s no glaring needs, there’s plenty of room for improvement. Banks is a steal at 25 and the Giants flirted with several free agent CBs, so I doubt they’d be hesitant to lock down a player like Banks if he slides here. The defensive backfield is also one of their top spots for potential improvement and will go a long way toward slowing the high powered offenses of the NFC East.

26. Dallas Cowboys - DL Bryan Bresee Clemson:

Tight End could be in play here, but Dallas really needs to find a better interior pass rush. While this isn’t the best possible fit for Bresee scheme wise, he’s a day 1 starter and quite a steal at 26. Finding some interior pressure will immensely help Dan Quinn’s already top tier defense.

27. Buffalo Bills - LB Trenton Simpson Clemson:

The Bills have had one of the league’s best linebacking corps for years now, but Tremaine Edmunds’ departure left a gaping hole next to Matt Milano. Simpson gives Buffalo another ultra-athletic linebacker allowing Sean McDermott’s defense to continue playing their style of football. While he’s not Edmunds, Buffalo’s D should hardly skip a beat with this pick.

28. Cincinnati Bengals - TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame:

While Mayer isn’t as polished of a receiver as Kincaid, he’s the most complete Tight End in this class and should be a great fit for Burrow’s crew. He’ll give Cincy an added boost in both blocking and red zone production. The Bengals don’t have any actual “needs” but this could turn a weakness into a strength rather quickly.

Pick 29 TRADE New Orleans Saints to Houston Texans 

Texans get #29 - Saints get a 2nd Rounder (#33), a 4th Rounder (#104), and a 2024 5th.

29. Houston Texans - WR Zay Flowers Boston College:

The first trade of this draft! This draft was intended to have first round trades but the way the chips were falling made a lot of teams happy to stay put. The big domino in the trade scene is Seattle at 5, if they move out of that spot I’d expect the number of trades to move way up. Either way there’s likely at least 2 to 4 more in here, I just wasn’t going to force them.

For the Texans, this move makes a ton of sense. I think there’ll be quite a few teams who view Zay as a potential WR1 despite his size. Pairing him with Bruce Young feels like a great fit for Houston and if they like him, they may have to get ahead of KC and Pit to get him. All of a sudden, a desolate receiving corp now boasts 3 young studs (Flowers, Metchie, Collins) and a solid vet for guidance in Robert Woods. The Saints are also more than happy to move back, grab a few picks, and hopefully still get there guy at 33. Stay tuned.

30. Philadelphia Eagles - DL/Edge Keion White Georgia Tech:

Now here is an Eagles pick! Keion White is very physically gifted for a 285+ lb lineman and that could thrust him up higher in this draft. White has a ton of scheme flexibility which makes him a great fit for Philly, they love versatile defenders who can play in multiple spots throughout the game. He’ll likely be a base end no matter the scheme with the ability to rush from 3-technique or Edge.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Darnell Wright Tennessee:

KC can go compete for a championship right now, there’s not a lot of desperation to find starters. That said, they could definitely go for upgrades at OT and Edge. There’s other places where improvement is possible but these are the two least talented spots on the roster. Andy Reid’s squad seems to have one kryptonite and that’s pressure on Mahomes. When Mahomes gets battered, KC looks much differently. Knowing that, I doubt KC goes into the season with what it has at OT today. Wright should slot in at RT and help keep Mahomes upright. If there’s a learning curve for Wright, they’ll be “good enough” with what they have to slowly bring him along.

Round 2

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Drew Sanders Arkansas

33. New Orleans Saints (from Hou) - DL/Edge Adetomiwa Adebawore Northwestern

34. Arizona Cardinals - CB Emmanuel Forbes Mississippi St.

35. Indianapolis Colts - CB Kelee Ringo Georgia

36. Los Angeles Rams - Edge Will McDonald IV Iowa St.

37. Seattle Seahawks - DT Mazi Smith Michigan

38. Las Vegas Raiders - QB Hendon Hooker Tennessee 

39. Carolina Panthers - C John Michael Schmitz Minnesota 

40. New Orleans Saints - Edge Isaiah Foskey Notre Dame

41. Tennessee Titans - C Joe Tippmann Wisconsin 

Pick 42 & 43 TRADE New York Jets to Green Bay Packers

Packers get #42 & #43 and a 2024 conditional 4th - Jets get Aaron Rodgers and a 2024 conditional 7th

(Like I said, it will not take a 1st for ARod)

42. Green Bay Packers - WR Josh Downs North Carolina

43. Green Bay Packers - OT/G Cody Mauch North Dakota State

44. Atlanta Falcons - WR Jalin Hyatt Tennessee 

45. Green Bay Packers - S JL Skinner Boise State

46. New England Patriots - OT Anton Harrison Oklahoma

47. Washington Commanders - CB DJ Turner Michigan 

48. Detroit Lions - TE Luke Musgrave Oregon State

49. Pittsburgh Steelers - S Antonio Johnson Texas A&M

50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Jordan Battle Alabama

51. Miami Dolphins - HB Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama

52. Seattle Seahawks - WR A.T. Perry Wake Forest

53. Chicago Bears - OT Dawand Jones Ohio State

54. Los Angeles Chargers - HB Tyjae Spears Tulane

55. Detroit Lions - CB Cam Smith South Carolina 

56. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Clark Phillips III Utah

57. New York Giants - C Luke Wypler Ohio State

58. Dallas Cowboys - HB Zach Charbonnet UCLA

59. Buffalo Bills - OG Steve Avila TCU

60. Cincinnati Bengals - HB Zach Evans Ole Miss

61. Chicago Bears - DT Jalen Redmond Oklahoma 

62. Philadelphia Eagles - S Ji’Ayir Brown Penn State

63. Kansas City Chiefs - Edge Derick Hall Auburn

Round 3

64. Chicago Bears - CB Julius Brents Kansas State

65. Houston Texans - CB Garrett Williams Syracuse

66. Arizona Cardinals - WR Rashee Rice SMU

67. Denver Broncos - CB Tyrique Stevenson Miami

68. Denver Broncos - DE Colby Wooden Auburn

69. Los Angeles Rams - LB Jack Campbell Iowa

70. Las Vegas Raiders - OT/OG Matthew Bergeron Syracuse

71. New Orleans Saints - S Sydney Brown Illinois 

72. Tennessee Titans - TE Darnell Washington Georgia 

73. Houston Texans - LB Owen Pappoe Auburn

74. Cleveland Browns - Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah Kansas State

75. Atlanta Falcons - CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU

76. New England Patriots - Edge Tuli Tuipulotu USC

77. Los Angeles Rams - OT Wanya Morris Oklahoma 

78. Green Bay Packers - WR Cedric Tillman Tennessee 

79. Indianapolis Colts - S Daniel Scott California 

80. Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Siaki Ika Baylor

81. Detroit Lions - TE Sam LaPorta Iowa

82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S/NB Jartavius Martin Illinois 

83. Seattle Seahawks - HB Mohamed Ibrahim Minnesota 

84. Miami Dolphins - TE Tucker Kraft South Dakota State

85. Los Angeles Chargers - WR Nathaniel Dell Houston 

86. Baltimore Ravens - WR Kayshon Boutte LSU

87. Minnesota Vikings - CB Darius Rush South Carolina 

88. Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Luke Schoonmaker Michigan

89. New York Giants - HB Israel Abanikanda Pitt

90. Dallas Cowboys - TE Josh Whyle Cincinnati 

91. Buffalo Bills - DT Gervon Dexter Florida

92. Cincinnati Bengals - S Anthony Johnson Jr. Iowa State

93. Carolina Panthers - DL/Edge Mike Morris Michigan 

94. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Marvin Mims Oklahoma 

95. Kansas City Chiefs - HB Devon Achane Texas A&M

96. Arizona Cardinals - C Ricky Stromberg Arkansas 

97. Washington Commanders - Edge K.J. Henry Clemson

98. Cleveland Browns - HB Eric Gray Oklahoma 

99. San Francisco 49ers - CB Eli Ricks Alabama 

100. Las Vegas Raiders - LB Daiyan Henley Washington State

101. San Francisco 49ers - LB Henry To’oTo’o Alabama 

102. San Francisco 49ers - OT Blake Freeland BYU