2023 Post Combine 1-Round Mock Draft

 DISCLAIMER: This mock was nearly finished before the Carolina/Chicago trade, so I kept what I had. Notice my own Carolina/Chicago trade, just in the wrong spot. The trade doesn’t change the picks much as I believe Carolina either keeps who I had at 1 here or goes with who I had them taking originally if they’re in-fact in love. Enjoy!

Wow, what a combine! This has to be one of the most physically impressive combine groups ever. There are a lot of risers from the event and very little guys did anything to hurt their stock, outside of the Jalen Carter situation of course. That said, making a semi accurate mock draft in early March is quite the task this year. 

Fairly similar to last year, a lot of what we’ll see in the draft is riding on Free Agency. Of course, that’s mainly because of Quarterback but as we know, QB dictates the entire draft. For this exercise, we know Carr to NOLA but I’m going to guess Jackson and Daniel Jones return to their respective teams while Rodgers heads to NYJ and Garoppolo finds himself in LV. There’s a lot of question marks left though: Trey Lance, anybody?

This will be my first of 4 2023 mock drafts followed by a Post FA 3 rounder at the end of the month, A full 7 round mock 1 week before the draft, and a final 1 round addendum the morning of round 1. I hope you’ll check them all out, I dedicate a lot of time twoard getting as many picks right as possible. Let’s get rippin!

Pick 1 TRADE Chicago Bears to Indianapolis Colts 

Colts get #1 and a 2024 4th rounder - Bears get #4, a 2nd Rounder (#35), a 2024 2nd Rounder, and G Quenton Nelson

1. Indianapolis Colts - QB C.J. Stroud Ohio State:

Starting with a bang! The #1 pick will move, the question is where to and how high will the price get. Now I know what you’re thinking, that is a lot to give up to jump from 4 to 1 for a guy who may have been there at 4. The price of this pick could be even higher, I could see at least 5 teams in the running for a trade here. Probably more. 

The more teams involved the higher the price, and with Houston in the running currently picking at 2 it’s going to take more than just a bounty of picks. Bears GM Ryan Poles is a former O-Lineman in desperate need of veterans who can provide high level play and leadership. I expect Chicago to build around Fields by investing in the trenches on both sides this year, and this is a great start. The 26 year old Nelson is what makes a deal here stick. The bears move back close enough to still grab a top D Lineman and add a future HOF Guard with possibly 10 years left of work, not to mention the addition of a pair of 2nd round picks. While Indy gets the final piece of the puzzle for a talented roster, while ensuring that their division rival doesn’t steal their pick of the liter.

Houston picking 2nd forces Indy’s hand, but new Head Coach Shane Steichen gets his guy. Getting the player that most closely fits what he’s comfortable with in a QB1. I know everyone is looking for him to take a guy similar to Hurts but most of his career was actually spent with a gunslinging gamer in Philip Rivers and Stroud shows signs of being that on day 1. Stroud and Young are 100% ready for week 1 action and Stroud positioned himself as a very high floor prospect at the combine. While Young’s size, on the other hand, remains a concern.

Sorry for the novel, but this is a BIG pick.

2. Houston Texans - QB Bryce Young Alabama:

I’d like to think this is Houston’s guy regardless of Indy moving up, but it’s really hard to say. DeMeco Ryans is going to have a lot of time to decide who’s the right guy for his offense, which can lead to a lot of over thinking and second guessing. That said, Ryans knows all too well from his time in San Fran the value of a guy that doesn’t make mistakes. I expect Houston to become a bit of a 49ers south situation, prioritizing defense and ball control. Young is a perfect fit for that style of team, and the plug and play nature of that offense makes his potential durability issues even less concerning. I smell a lot of success in Houston’s future.

3. Arizona Cardinals - DL Jalen Carter Georgia:

Yep. This is a tough call but I have a hard time believing that a prospect as polished as Carter is going to be too affected by this specific situation. We’ve seen worse, much worse. Carter is the top overall player in this draft skill wise and an amazing fit for what Johnathan Gannon is going to want to do defensively. Coming from Philly DLine is paramount and Carter has flexibility to be a 4-3 Tackle or a 3-4 End, which is a great skillset for a new HC to build around defensively. Gannon used a 4-3 base in Philly but inherits a 3-4 roster in Arizona, Carter can really help him bridge that gap if eventually moving to a 4-3 is the end goal. The Cards are going to want to build a defensive bully and Carter is the perfect pick to start this new regime, no matter how controversial. It’s also safe to assume Gannon had a say in the Jordan Davis pick last year, why not another versatile bulldog D-Lineman this time around.

Pick 4 TRADE Chicago Bears to Carolina Panthers

Panthers get #4 - Bears get #9, a 2nd Rounder (#61) and a 2024 5th Rounder (From SF)

4. Carolina Panthers - QB Anthony Richardson Florida:

Chicago makes another trade and picks up ANOTHER 2nd rounder. There’s been reports that the bears could move back twice and I believe them. As I mentioned earlier, they’re likely going to want to build that defensive front and with Carter gone, that means Edge. Edge is really deep, they can move back to 9 here, stock picks and still get a great Day 1 starter with upside. Carolina, on the other hand, has desperately needed a QB for the future and new HC Frank Reich gets a guy he can mold. They didn’t sell the farm and get all that fire power for no reason. They come out of this ordeal with Richardson being able to sit for a little behind Darnold and still keep an early 2nd rounder.

You know, I originally thought Richardson and Levis were mid to late first round guys but man oh man did the combine blow that up. They showcased phenomenal upside. Frank Reich is going to want that, especially with the way he lost his job due to QB play in Indy.

5. Seattle Seahawks - Edge Tyree Wilson Texas Tech:

It’s hard to put Wilson here, I personally like Will Anderson a bit more and I believe most teams will too. That said, Wilson is a match made in heaven for Seattle and I think he’ll be the top player on their board. The Hawks love big, versatile Edge defenders who can play the run as well as rush the passer. They also love plus athletes and Wilson is going to wow on his Pro Day. He may become the biggest post combine riser and leap frog the aforementioned Anderson.

Pick 6 TRADE Detroit Lions to Tennessee Titans

Titans get #6 - Lions get #11, a 3rd Rounder (#72) and a 2024 3rd Rounder

6. Tennessee Titans - Edge Will Anderson Alabama:

Detroit is willing to wheel and deal, they want to build their secondary and in this scenario that doesn’t need to happen at 6. They’ll get calls from teams looking for Will Levis at this pick too. Trades could really happen at any pick in the top 10 this year. I believe that Tennessee is embracing a slight rebuild, their roster is going to look quite different next year and they should have a few more picks than they do today. That means more draft capital to play with and more opportunity to move up and get a franchise player in Will Anderson.

Yes, Tennessee badly needs help at OT but I’d wager that they really need help everywhere. They’ll look to address OL and WR later or in Free Agency. Former star Linebacker Mike Vrabel gets a guy who will lead his defense for the next decade.

7. Las Vegas Raiders - QB Will Levis Kentucky:

As I mentioned in my intro, I expect Vegas to sign a veteran signal caller and in this case that’s Jimmy G. They’ll hype up the signing all of April and keep their QB interest a secret. Levis looked like a freak in Indy and Josh McDaniels will be more than happy to take a year or two developing him behind Garoppolo. Jimmy G can definitely win now but how long will that last? When his time comes, Levis will drop bombs to Tae Adams.

8. Atlanta Falcons - HB Bijan Robinson Texas:

This seems like the first big surprise of the draft, but there’s been a lot of Top 10 buzz behind Robinson. Atlanta needs help all over the place and Nolan Smith feels like a great fit here but Atlanta has not had a great track record with 1st Round Edge’s in the past. They’ve been retooling on offense a lot in the past few years and HB feels like a missing piece. Arthur Smith’s teams have always been best with a good running game and Robinson will take significant pressure off of Ridder in his first year as QB1.

9. Chicago Bears - Edge Myles Murphy Clemson:

Finally, The Bears make a pick! While they miss out on Carter, Anderson, and Wilson, Chicago slides back gaining a lot of picks in the process. Murphy is a great fit for Chicago’s defense and while he may not be in the same tier as those picked prior, I think he’s the clear 3rd best Edge when it comes to being NFL ready. He may not test as ridiculously as some of the freaks we’re seeing today but he’s going to contribute right away.

10. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon:

This is a tough one, based on the board I think Corner is the move. A lot of people believe Devon Witherspoon is the top CB in this draft but I think he’s a lot closer to Gonzalez and Joey Porter Jr then people realize. It really just depends on the flavor each team is looking for, and Gonzalez has the best traits to provide a Sauce type of output in year 1, which is what everyone should be chasing. The Eagles grab a guy with speed and lockdown ability who can learn a lot in a room with Darius Slay. The turnovers will come being coached up in Philly.

11. Detroit Lions - CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois:

The trade back pays off, Detroit gains more draft capital and fills out their defensive backfield with an absolute ballhawk. Witherspoon jumps off the board to Detroit at 11 and they likely would have been happy taking him at 6. He has the best turnover potential of any Corner in the draft and will provide the plays Dan Campbell’s D was missing in ‘22.

12. Houston Texans - Edge Lukas Van Ness Iowa:

The Ryans era starts off with the addition of a future leader on each side of the ball. The 49ers have had a lot of success over the years with strong, versatile edge rushers like Van Ness and that carries over to Ryans squad in Houston. Van Ness will be a great piece for what the Texans will aim to build up front.

13. New York Jets - DL Calijah Kancey Pitt:

Everyone thinks the Jets so desperately need to draft an OT but I don’t see that. They can likely resign Fant or Ogbuehi pretty cheap which would leave them with Beckton (a lock to start), Duane Brown, Max Mitchell, and Greg Senat in addition to whoever they resign barring any cap casualties. Not great, but not desperate. I also expect OL to have much less top 20 hype when you look at the defensive stars in this draft. NYJ currently has 2 DTs under contract for 2023: Quinnen Williams and Isaiah Mack. While they’ll likely resign Rankins, Shepard, or Thomas this room needs work. Kancey not only fills out the room, he provides a fantastic compliment to Williams upfront and a star interior pass rusher in the making. The Jets focus on building their identity which is defense all the way baby.

14. New England Patriots - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State:

This is a tough one. While I think OT, specifically Skoronski, is in play here, I believe Belichick knows he needs to give Mac more tools if he wants the young QB to grow. There’s also more depth at Tackle than Receiver in New England, especially if Meyers leaves in free agency. Smith-Njigba is a true technician and the exact type of player Belichick would love to add to his offense.

15. Green Bay Packers - TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame:

Green Bay needs more weapons if they plan for the transition from Rodgers to Love to go smoothly. WR is a work in progress but they enter the year with some promising upside at the position. Enter Michael Mayer. While he didn’t test as well as other TEs at the combine, he can provide a team with major blocking and short yardage production right away. Green Bay tends to like those old school style TEs making Mayer a great fit. He can help Love in multiple areas providing some extra edge protection and a reliable safety valve in an offense that appears poised to spread the field.

16. Washington Commanders - OT Peter Skoronski Northwestern:

At this point, The Commanders are getting a steal whether they go Skoronski or address CB with Joey Porter Jr. I have them suring up a spotty OLine here with the addition of the draft’s top Tackle in Skoronski. We see him slide here for a few reasons: the major run on QBs and his lack of length and top physical traits. The latter of those reasons have caused him to be looked at in a closer arena to Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones than people may think.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Joey Porter Jr. Penn State:

Prior to the combine, I was adamant that The Steelers would jump on hometown guys Porter and Jordan Addison if one was available. Only at that point, I viewed either being available as a long shot. While neither did anything to directly hurt their stock, they didn’t help it as much as others. Now, both are still around at 17 and the question becomes who do you take. Corner is a bit bigger of a need. Not to mention that Tomlin is good friends with Joey senior and likely knows everything there is to know about his son as a prospect. Porter is a great fit for Pittsburgh’s defense and will contribute right away.

18. Detroit Lions - TE Luke Musgrave Oregon State:

After grabbing their Corner of choice earlier, Detroit could grab another D-Back or even Beef up their Front 7 here. That said, it’s not like the Lion’s offense is overflowing with weapons. Former Tight End Dan Campbell is going to have a hard time not getting involved in what will shape up to be the best TE draft in a long time. With Hockenson gone and no absolute must’s left to address, Big Dan can have some fun. Musgrave is a freaky athlete with enough talent to help out Jared Goff in year 1.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Broderick Jones Georgia:

With the long expected departure of LT Donovan Smith, The Bucs have holes on the entire left side of their line. Broderick Jones is a huge steal here. Just like we mentioned with Skoronski, the abundance of defensive talent causes great O-Lineman to slide and affords the Bucs a day one starter on either side of the line. The only question is whether Jones just slots in at left or if they bump Wirfs to left and place Jones at right. What a young tandem this would make.

20. Seattle Seahawks - WR Quentin Johnston TCU:

I’ve been mocking the Seahawks going Edge and WR in the first round for months now. It just feels inevitable when you look at their roster and the way Pete Carroll builds his teams. That said, I also wouldn’t be too shocked by a CB here to pair with their two fantastic rookies from last year (Deonte Banks comes to mind). Johnston gives the Hawks a great option outside and another plus athlete to add to the mix. They’ll hope for him and Eskridge to make some great strides and allow them to make easier decisions about Geno’s supporting cast in the near future.

21. Los Angeles Chargers - DL/Edge Keion White Georgia Tech:

This is a tough one, The Chargers have a lot of spots where they could improve but they don’t have any glaring needs. White is a freak athlete and while he can contribute now, his best bet is to go somewhere that’s going to bring him along at the right pace. The other question with White is whether he’s better suited inside or on the Edge. In LA he could get a lot of playing time at 3-4 end replacing upcoming FA Morgan Fox, in addition to fielding Edge snaps in relief of Bosa and Mack. If White proves he can handle the Edge, he’ll quickly become Mack’s successor.

22. Baltimore Ravens - OT Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State:

Baltimore could go a lot of ways here: They may love Nolan Smith’s skillset on the Edge, Addison or Flowers could quickly become WR1, or Banks could even start at CB in the event Peters finds a new home. In this case though, I see Baltimore continuing to build in the trenches. This is a pure luxury pick as there’s no major needs here and Morgan Moses is a solid starter on the right side. That said, he’s 32 and the aforementioned positions are much deeper than OT where Johnson is the last of a clear top tier (with Skoronski and Jones). Baltimore gets a big steal and can choose to push Johnson in now or bring him along slowly behind Moses.

23. Minnesota Vikings - WR Jordan Addison USC:

There’s three options here: add a wideout, go Branch who can help at Safety and Nickel, or go Nolan Smith with this Za’Darius Smith situation coming to a head. Minnesota has depth at Edge and drafted Lewis Cine in the 1st last year at Safety. They’ve been lacking depth at WR for years and it looks like they’ll end up without Thielen and Olabisi Johnson in ‘23. Finding a running mate for Jefferson has to be top priority and Addison is a very good one at that. Cousins will have two supreme route runners with this addition.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Deonte Banks Maryland:

Secondary needs to be the play here, I could see Branch as a fit but they really need a long term solution on the outside. Banks already had some real 1st round buzz but he really wowed at the combine. At this point, he’s the clear #4 CB on the board and I think there’s a decent sized perceived drop off after him. 

25. New York Giants - S/NB Brian Branch Alabama:

Another Bama star could be in play here too with Barkley seemingly playing his last season in NYC on the tag: Jahmyr Gibbs. Had to point that out, but I still think Branch is a better pick here. The Giants have had great success selecting Bama Safeties over the last few years. Branch slides in this draft because he doesn’t have a clear fit between Safety and Nickel, but that happens to be the biggest reason New York jumps on him here. They have needs at both spots and need to find a way to slow down offenses like Philly and Dallas if they’re going to be successful going forward. Jones can get by with less tools on Offense if the D is firing on all cylinders, he proved that last year.

26. Dallas Cowboys - LB Trenton Simpson Clemson:

Dallas is far from a complete team but once again their Linebacking corp is weak. They have some guys who could step up in the middle if Vander Esch leaves in free agency but they really have nothing at the moment on the outside across from Parsons. Dallas needs a true Weakside backer who can get a cross the field and make plays, Simpson proved he has all of the tools to be that when he ran a fantastic 4.43 at the combine. He has great chase speed and is the perfect player to fill a role Dallas is desperately lacking in.

27. Buffalo Bills - G O’Cyrus Torrence Florida:

Guard is a big need in Buffalo and it’s been, they need to find a long term starter here. Torrence is a big mauling Guard, not necessarily the perfect fit for Buffalo’s offense. That said he’s the clear top Guard in this draft and an absolute gamer. Culturally, he’s the type of guy Sean McDermott covets. If he’s here, I’d expect Buffalo to run this pick in.

Pick 28 TRADE Cincinnati Bengals to Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs get #28 - Bengals get #31, a 4th rounder (#122), and a 2024 5th rounder

28. Kansas City Chiefs - Edge Nolan Smith Georgia:

Smith experienced a bit of a slide because he’s coming off an injury and is a really unique scheme fit, a similar situation to Branch in that way. He will be viewed by some teams as a near top 10 player and they’ll be trying to trade up all throughout this round. Buffalo was one of many teams that would consider offers but doesn’t want to miss on their guy (Torrence). Trade up interest in the mid to late first is there, I just believe teams will be reluctant to move back. That said, Cincy is happy to add the extra picks and isn’t taking a super big risk here moving back 3 spots.

Kansas City is likely moving on to a new running mate across from Karlaftis after cutting Frank Clark. With Philly and NOLA interested in adding pass rushers, they need to make this move to ensure they get Smith the clear top edge on the board. Andy Reid witnessed first hand how disruptive Hasaan Reddick is when utilized correctly in Philly. So much so, that he adds a player with a very similar game here in Smith. Smith will basically be relegated to pass rush duties in KC, which is the reason several teams with similar schemes had passed on him earlier.

29. New Orleans Saints - DT Mazi Smith Michigan:

Mazi Smith is a tough one, I believed he’d be a big time combine riser and what participation he did have certainly helped. If he runs at his pro day, I think we’ll see that Jordan Davis type of conversation all of a sudden. This big man can move! He’s a freak and I can see his pro day testing pushing him into the first round. While New Orleans has some other needs (another potential spot for Gibbs maybe?), they need to finally find a long term starter in the middle of their DLine. Smith seems like a better fit than Bryan Breese to me and I believe his pro day buzz should provide that final push.

30. Philadelphia Eagles - HB Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama:

While I expect the Eagles to resign Miles Sanders and maybe even Boston Scott, a player like Gibbs still makes a ton of sense. Gibbs would quickly become a great option out of the slot and the teams top receiving back for passing downs. His versatility and quickness will add another big dimension to Philly’s offense opening things up even more for Hurts and Company in 2023. Retaining a lead back like Sanders is key in this situation, it allows Sirianni to utilize Gibbs’ skills in space without trying to force him into a classic HB1 role.

31. Cincinnati Bengals - TE Dalton Kincaid Utah:

Cincy moves back, banks some more picks, and gets the guy I believe they would’ve taken at 28 anyways. The Bengals don’t have a lot of glaring needs and TEs Hurst, Wilcox, and Sample all seem poised to leave in free agency. Kincaid would add another fantastic weapon for Joe Burrow which may become much more important given all the drama with Joey B’s supporting cast this off-season.